Oil’s Dramatic Climb Continues as Gulf Ports Shut and Prices Near $100

Oil prices are once again testing the $100-a-barrel barrier as Iranian strikes on Gulf ports, storage facilities, and merchant vessels continue to constrain global supply. Brent crude gained around 6% Thursday to trade near $98, having briefly touched $100.29 during intraday trading. The moves have come against a backdrop of unprecedented emergency reserve releases that have so far failed to break the market’s upward momentum.
Iran struck tankers near Iraq’s export facilities, forcing an immediate suspension of crude shipments from the country’s oil ports. Bahrain placed its Muharraq Governorate under a shelter-in-place order after fuel tanks were attacked. Oman evacuated Mina Al Fahal, one of the region’s few remaining operational crude export terminals, following drone strikes at another of its ports.
The Strait of Hormuz has remained closed since fighting broke out on February 28, blocking the transit of roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas. Saudi Aramco has repeatedly warned of the catastrophic market implications of a prolonged closure. With Iran now targeting individual export terminals, the supply squeeze has grown more acute.
The IEA’s release of 400 million barrels of emergency crude from its 32 member nations was the most ambitious coordinated supply intervention in history, but markets remained unsatisfied. The US separately announced a 172-million-barrel release from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Iran responded to these measures by threatening that oil could hit $200 a barrel if hostilities continue.
Goldman Sachs revised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast upward to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank described the situation as carrying stagflation risks. Asian equities fell broadly, with Japan’s Nikkei losing 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi declining 1.2%, and European gas rising 7.7%.