War and Oil: How the Conflict in Iran Is Threatening to Reshape Global Energy Markets

The war between the United States and Iran was rewriting the map of global energy flows, threatening a supply shock that analysts said could be more severe than anything seen in decades. Iran had closed the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint through which roughly 20 percent of global oil and gas passes — since hostilities began on February 28. The US had responded by bombing Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal, while calling on allies to send naval forces to reopen the waterway.
President Trump said in public remarks on Saturday that US strikes had effectively destroyed most of Kharg Island, located 15 miles off Iran’s coast. Energy experts warned that the island’s further destruction could push oil prices already hovering around $120 per barrel toward $150. That level, they said, would cause severe economic disruption in oil-importing nations and potentially trigger a global recession. Trump held open the threat of further destruction, saying he had previously held back “for reasons of decency” but that Iranian interference with shipping could change his calculation.
Iran responded by escalating its own campaign. Ballistic missiles struck the UAE on Saturday, hitting near Fujairah — one of the world’s busiest ship-refuelling hubs — and forcing a suspension of oil-loading operations. Iranian military officials warned civilians near ports and US installations to evacuate. The country’s military spokesman threatened strikes on any facility in the region with American ownership or partnership, while the foreign minister demanded Arab states expel US forces.
Trump took to social media to call on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK to contribute warships to a multilateral effort to force the Strait of Hormuz open. The appeal was notable as it implicitly acknowledged that the US might not be capable of reopening the strait on its own. The USS Tripoli and 2,500 additional marines had already been dispatched to the region. Marine expeditionary units are capable of amphibious operations, though officials cautioned this did not necessarily mean a ground invasion was imminent.
The war’s human cost was profound and growing. More than 1,400 Iranians had reportedly been killed under sustained bombing. Israel had suffered 13 deaths, and around 20 people across the Gulf had died in the conflict. Lebanon, gripped by a parallel Israeli campaign against Hezbollah, had seen more than 800 killed and 850,000 displaced. Six US service members died when a military refuelling plane crashed in Iraq. Trump said the war would continue “as long as it’s necessary,” refusing to provide any public timeline for its conclusion.