DataGreat, a tourism intelligence platform, has unveiled a scenario analysis examining how a prolonged conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States might impact Turkish tourism. This sector ranks as Türkiye’s third-largest export area. The analysis was conducted by Alper Tekin, the founder of DataGreat, using the Crisis Impact Simulator, which integrates data from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) Economic Impact Report 2025.
The proximity of Türkiye to the potential conflict zone is a significant concern, with six of its top ten inbound tourism markets, such as Russia, Germany, the UK, Iran, Bulgaria, and Georgia, located within approximately 3,000 kilometers of the Iran-Israel axis. Tourism is a vital part of the Turkish economy, contributing over 11 percent to the GDP and providing around three million direct jobs, based on WTTC data referenced by the platform.
The Crisis Impact Simulator used by DataGreat doesn’t offer forecasts but applies deterministic scenario rules based on WTTC and World Bank data. It includes a generative-AI component that creates explanatory narratives, ensuring each claim is backed by source identifiers. The platform’s “zero hallucinations” policy rejects outputs that cannot be matched to the dataset. The analysis presents three scenarios: a regional escalation affecting European leisure demand, a decline in Russian outbound tourism, and volatility in the Turkish lira due to geopolitical tensions.
Tekin emphasizes that this tool is meant for planning purposes rather than predicting outcomes. It is designed to aid destination management organizations and operators in preparing for potential scenarios before they occur. The simulator’s detailed outputs, including vulnerabilities, mitigation strategies, and indicators, are available to credentialed media upon request. Additionally, DataGreat’s Risk Radar module provides complementary insights by scoring tourism risks in 42 countries weekly.
DataGreat operates on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset, offering a range of products including a Persona Builder, Risk Radar, and Crisis Impact Simulator. It is managed by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş., based in Edirne, Türkiye.